russell-wilson

A new stat is invented for evaluating Senior Bowl QB’s…while Eagles backup QB question remains…

Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting is still in Mobile, Alabama, filing reports from Senior Bowl week and coming up with some nice original stuff.  He’s living on Waffle House pancakes, 5-Hour Energy Drink and Starbucks coffee… but he’s making it.

Meanwhile the local debate over what to do with the Eagles’ backup QB situation carries on… Release Vince Young? Bring in a lower-cost veteran (Trent Edwards), even if he’s been out of the game for a year? Promote Mike Kafka? Bring back Donovan McNabb at half his old contract value if Donnie’s ego can deal with the situation? Or draft and sign one of the top QB hopefuls from the current college senior class of 2012?

Bottom line: if you’re going with Mike Vick at QB#1, you’re going to have to project at least three and possibly 4 or more starts for your backup QB.

Even Kyle Boller and old veteran Jeff Garcia remain in play for the Eagles depending upon how they decide to make their backup plan for 2012.

I tend to lean toward releasing Vince Young and giving Kafka his shot at #2… but still having a promising draftee in the wings.

And that’s why Eric Galko’s new statistical invention to measure young QB prospects’ Real-Time IQ became intriguing to me.

Here’s a condensed version of the report on QB’s he filed on Thursday after the final Wednesday practices:

Russell Wilson, QB, 5-11, 201, who transferred from North Carolina State to Wisconsin, and also has a professional baseball career in the wings, could be at age 24 ready to take on an NFL backup assignment… He scored very high in Eric Galko’s evaluation experiment at Senior Bowl practice sessions this past week…

It was a very busy day for Galko on Wednesday, with North and South practices to cover, press conference quotes to get, and most importantly, additional tape to watch in the film room with NFL scouts.

On that film room note, Galko got a chance to see every meaningful drill rep of the past two days in there, so there may not be a single person who’s seen more Senior Bowl practices in person or on tape than Galko…  other than equally obsessed NFL team scouts, of course. 

Eric Galko’s New Quarterback Stat Analysis

Here’s where Galko came up with a new wrinkle on quantifying the efficacy of a QB practice:

-”While the Senior Bowl is maybe the best chance to throw around stats, I did a little bit of statistical anaylsis on the quarterbacks. Here was the experiment: I would see, from Day 2 and Day 3, in team and 7-on-7 drills, how many reads each quarterback made off the snap and how they scored in correct read/incorrect read ratio, and good read vs. bad throw ratio. Here are the results:”

Russell Wilson: 1.9 reads, 70% throwing the correct read, 15% throwing to the wrong read (didn’t make incorrect read all of Day 2);

Brandon Weeden: 1.6 reads, 65% throwing the correct read (only once made correct read with poor throw);

Kirk Cousins: 1.5 reads, 40% throwing the correct read (5 throws that were either poor throws or route communication errors);

Ryan Lindley: 1.5 reads, 30% throwing the correct read (40% of the time was throwing the wrong read, mostly due to pressure in pocket and panicking);

Kellen Moore: 1.2 reads, 20% throwing the correct read (that includes one “sack”, which is a sack that he caused by indecisiveness, not by pressure);

Nick Foles: 1.2 reads, 40% throwing the correct read, but “sacked” FOUR times due to indecisiveness.

“So, what can we make out of this? Well, as I watched the tape, Russell Wilson had a fantastic week, placing the ball well, scanning the field, using his eyes to move safties/cornerbacks, and overall showed some great field awareness.

Brandon Weeden had a very good week, and part of his lack of greater numbers was from having 1-2 less throws (for whatever reason) than the other quarterbacks.

Kirk Cousins seems, on film, after one read, he’s throwing to that second guy or bust, which isn’t good for an NFL offense.

Ryan Lindley actually can make the reads, but was far too flustered under pressure and overall too inaccurate to say he had a good week.

Nick Foles is far too indecisive and needs that rhythm, timing offense he had in college, while Kellen Moore anticipated pre-snap all week and seemed to need to realize that he couldn’t drive the ball down the field on a second read in the NFL.

Eric Galko’s experimental stat measurement of young QB’s in drill situations seems meaningful to me in the sense of getting a better feel for which college senior may be most ready to take on an emergency assignment in his rookie season in the NFL.

With the Eagles, that “emergency” aspect has got to be a practical consideration. As we’ve seen over the past two NFL seasons, and even looking back at the final McNabb years, the backup QB has got to be ready to go, and proficient in his reads… with the actual physicality of throwing the ball with conviction secondary to knowing where to throw it.

Thomas Jackson

About Thomas Jackson

Jax Sports Media has been reporting on NFL teams in the mid-Atlantic region since 2006. Thomas Jackson is its senior writer. Tom started covering the Philadelphia Eagles for the MVN Network in 2007. In 2009 he joined the Bloguin Network. He now also covers the Baltimore Ravens.

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